19 July 2024
Stockhead - Gold Digger: These analysts reckon gold’s odds on to hit US$3000. You read that right!
This week’s episode of ‘Only in America’ saw Trump literally earmarked to become the next president after surviving an assassination attempt at a Pennsylvania rally. If he hadn’t moved his head at the last second imagine what that would’ve meant for gold, master of uncertainty and chaos.
Gold is still forecast to go gangbusters. As it hit all-time highs of US$2483.60 earlier this week analysts are pegging a continued rise for bullion ahead of expected US Fed interest rate cuts and a US Election outcome which, either way, is unlikely to make the world any more stable.
Gold bulls see prices rise
Finance analysts Shaw & Partners have gone bullish on gold, upgrading price predictions almost 40% over the next 24 months, with new outlooks rocketing from US$2250 in 2025 and US$2150 for 2026 up to US$3000 for both years.
The group proposes an overweight exposure to bullion – with strong buy recommendations for a bunch of ASX listed goldies from head of research Andrew Hines, along with fellow analysts Peter Kormendy and Dorab Postmaster:
- Ramelius Resources (ASX: RMS) BUY, $2.73 – Ramelius is one of the lowest cost significant (+200Kozpa) gold producers on the ASX.
- Genesis Minerals (ASX: GMD) BUY, $2.75 – Genesis has the asset base and management to develop into a 400kozpa gold producer.
- Southern Cross Gold (ASX: SXG), BUY, $3.26 – Southern Cross Gold is looking to double its exploration target to 3Moz in the next 12 months.
- Black Cat Syndicate (ASX: BC8), BUY, $0.86 – Black Cat is on track to achieving a production rate of +70kozpa from two assets by mid-2025.
- Saturn Metals (ASX: STN) BUY, $0.37 – The first phase of the Apollo Hill project will involve a low-cost starter pit and pilot plant, due to be producing in 2025.
- Antipa Minerals (ASX: AZY) BUY, $0.04 – Resource upgrades expected across multiple prospects at Minyari Dome (100% owned).
- AuMega Metals (ASX: AAM) BUY, $0.19 – The company has a plethora of high-impact greenfield targets that are currently being tested.
Morgan Stanley echoes the bull run of gold with its own price target for the December quarter this year to come in at US$2650, despite foreseeable market ructions out of the US.
“Continued volatility is likely as incoming US data influences expectations on rate cut timing, but we think the broad direction for gold should be higher,” commodity strategist Amy Gower says.
“While US recession fears are rising, our economists still see a soft landing with a stronger Fed reaction if the data turns weaker, either of which should support investor gold inflows.”
The shiny currency of war
Yet the most consistent underlying upward pressure on prices is the plain, simple and unmitigated fact that gold is the world’s conflict currency.
The war in Ukraine is still ticking along just as heatedly as it was when it was deemed newsworthy enough for a 15-minute lead segment across nightly news cycles.
Paying for the conflict still costs about US$250 billion each year – roughly the same value as the 3000 tonnes (adding about an extra 1% each year to the total stockpile) of annual global gold production.
And unfortunately, it’s fair to say that waging war is as consistent a human reality as death and taxes.
Turning to ASX-listed goldies, we’ve got a few tasty stocks that have been in the news this week to whet your appetite.
Winners & Losers
Here’s how ASX-listed precious metals stocks are performing:
See interactive table on Stockhead website
By Cameron Drummond
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